La montée de l’AGI : Les doutes des experts sur le calendrier de la singularité

AGI will arrive by 2029 and the singularity will occur by 2045, but some experts are skeptical of his predictions

Ray Kurzweil, director of engineering at Google and famous futurist, has made numerous predictions over the past decades, most of which revolve around the rapid evolution of technology. He notably predicted that general artificial intelligence (AGI) would be a reality by 2029 and that the singularity would occur by 2045. Today, Ray Kurzweil is standing by his predictions and, like him, many CEOs of startups and AI companies claim that humanity will achieve a certain form of AGI by 2030. However, some experts are more moderate on the issue and others are skeptical of his forecasts.

Ray Kurzweil is certain that the industry will achieve a certain form of AGI by 2029

Ray Kurzweil is an American author, computer scientist, and inventor. A prophet of AI since the 1970s, Kurzweil has founded or co-founded several successful companies, including Kurzweil Computer Products, Kurzweil Educational Systems, and Nuance Communications. But he is perhaps best known for his work on the law of accelerating returns and for his predictions about the future of technology and society. Among his most famous inventions, Kurzweil was the first to create optical character recognition (OCR) software and he co-founded a company that manufactures musical synthesizers with Stevie Wonder.

In 2012, Kurzweil was hired by Google co-founder Larry Page as director of engineering for the online search giant. With his team of software programmers at Google, he studied how computers could process, interpret, understand, and use human language in everyday applications. Today, at 75, Ray Kurzweil is still working at Google as a lead researcher and AI visionary. He is one of the main figures behind Gemini, Google’s latest large language model. The company claims that Gemini surpasses OpenAI’s GPT-4 model.

Long before landing at Google, Kurzweil published numerous books from the 1990s onwards in which he made predictions about the evolution of technologies, including AI. In 1990, he published « The Age of Intelligent Machines, » then « The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence). In 2005, he published « The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. » These works foresaw the arrival of AGI before 2030.

Kurzweil is convinced that his prediction is realistic and he reaffirmed it in an interview this year. He stated that the arrival of AGI would accelerate humanity’s march towards the singularity. The singularity is the term used by the industry to describe the moment when all technological advancements, including in AI, will lead to machines smarter than human beings. Here’s what Kurzweil says about these two likely evolutions: Sent by Ray Kurzweil It’s certain that by 2029, these machines will know everything that human beings know. We will advance this at an unprecedented pace in scientific progress. And by 2045, we will have multiplied our knowledge by at least a million, which is quite hard to comprehend. That’s why we talk about singularity.

Kurzweil’s timeline for the singularity is consistent with other predictions, including those of Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son, who predicts the advent of superintelligent machines by 2047. But for Kurzweil, the process leading to this singularity has already begun. This brings us to endowing computers with human intelligence, putting them in our brains, connecting them to the cloud, expanding our identity. Today, this is not a future scenario. It’s already here, in part, and it will accelerate, the Google executive said during one of his recent interviews. So, should humanity fear the singularity?

Many leading figures in science and technology, such as Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates, caution against this type of future. But Kurzweil disagrees. In fact, the singularity does not particularly worry him. It would be more accurate to say that he eagerly awaits it. According to Kurzweil, what science fiction describes as the singularity, the moment when a single superintelligent machine subjugates humanity, is just that: fiction. This is not realistic. We don’t have one or two AIs in the world. Today, we have billions of them, declared Kurzweil in a recent interview.

A few more predictions by Ray Kurzweil for the future of technology

For Kurzweil, the singularity is an opportunity for humanity to improve. He envisions that the technology that will make AIs smarter will also give humans a boost. What is actually happening is that machines are propelling us all upward. They are making us smarter. They may not be inside our bodies yet, but by the 2030s, we will connect our neocortex, the part of our brain where we think, to the cloud, he said. The futurist has made about 147 predictions since the 1990s and now claims an 86% accuracy rate. However, Kurzweil is controversial.

Regarardless of his achievements, he remains a controversial figure in the field of technology and futurism, and his ideas will likely continue to shape our understanding of the future in the years to come. His idea that we can become cyborgs by merging with the machine is similar to that of Elon Musk, CEO of Neuralink, a company that manufactures brain chips. According to Kurzweil, this is how cybernetics is just beginning to take root, and will eventually come to be.

And, as technology naturally improves, Kurzweil predicts that in the 2030s, technology will be invented to penetrate the brain and facilitate memory. So, instead of the vision of the singularity where machines take over the world, Kurzweil thinks it will be a future where man-machine synthesis will be uneven. Below are some other bold predictions made by Kurzweil over the years:

Nanotechnology and Medicine

Kurzweil has predicted major advances in the fields of nanotechnology and medicine. He believes that nanorobots, tiny machines can be programmed to perform specific functions in the human body, will soon revolutionize medicine. These nanorobots could repair damaged cells, cure diseases, and even enhance human abilities.

Virtual Reality and Immersive Experiences

Kurzweil has predicted a future in which virtual reality and immersive experiences will play an increasingly important role in our lives. He believes that we will soon be able to have realistic experiences in virtual worlds that are almost impossible to distinguish from reality, allowing us to explore new areas of existence and connect with others in new and profound ways.

Energy and Environmental Solutions

Finally, Kurzweil believes that new technologies will help humanity to address some of the most pressing environmental challenges, such as climate change and pollution. He envisions a future in which we will use new energy sources such as solar and wind power, as well as advanced recycling technologies and sustainable agricultural practices, to create a more sustainable and livable world for all of us.

In conclusion, Ray Kurzweil is known for his bold predictions, some of which may come to fruition, while others may fall by the wayside. In any case, his ideas continue to fuel discussions and inspire developments in the fields of technology and futurism. Whether these predictions will materialize remains to be seen, but there is no doubt that Kurzweil’s work has had a lasting impact on our understanding of the future.

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